Hundreds of millions of people worldwide live within 100 kilometres of a volcano that has experienced at least one significant eruption. Yet the warning signs that signal a shift from relatively mild activity to a high-impact eruption remain unclear. For example, 61% of eruptions initially only affect the immediate area around the summit, then rapidly shift to a much more explosive and dangerous state with the potential to affect many more people.
A new £3.7million study – led by the University of Bristol and involving partners including the °µÍø½âÃÜ â€“ aims to change that, and investigate what drives dangerous escalations in volcanic activity and how scientists can better detect them before they threaten lives.
Ex-X: Expecting the unexpected is a study funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, and will build on recent advances in volcanology, seismology, and numerical modelling. Initial research will focus on three volcanic systems in the Eastern Caribbean: Soufrière Volcano (St Vincent), Montagne Pelée (Martinique), and Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat).
Recent advances in seismology will enable the team to deploy large numbers of seismic ‘nodes’ across the Soufrière Volcano in the Caribbean island of St Vincent. These instruments, with long battery lives, will allow researchers to gather crucial data even when the volcano is not erupting. The resulting measurements, along with data from past eruptions, will be analysed using machine learning, helping the team to recognise subsurface activity before, during, and after these eruptive transitions.
These new insights will be incorporated into new mathematical models to simulate eruption processes. By tracking the development of eruptions in the simulations, the team will identify the key drivers and potential signals of escalations in eruptions.
In parallel, the research team will use advanced micro-analytical techniques, including Bristol’s X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and a state-of-the-art electron microprobe, to examine the small-scale changes in crystals formed during recent and historic eruptions. These crystals preserve records of changing conditions within magma systems, offering valuable clues to the processes that precede eruptions.
The Ex-X project team includes
Dr Paul Cole
, Associate Professor in Volcanology at the °µÍø½âÃÜ and former Director of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory.
He has been conducting research on active volcanoes in various locations across the Caribbean and Europe for more than three decades, beginning work on Soufrière Hills just after it started erupting in 1995 and working at La Soufrière during its eruptions in 2020 and 2021.
His role in the Ex-X project will include deriving parameters for the computer models of both magma ascent and eruption plumes that are being developed in the project.
He will also be working with a new °µÍø½âÃÜ PhD researcher, Tom Lofmark, who will study lithic fragments in explosive eruptions and what they can tell scientists about the nature of effusive eruptions taking place before the eruption become explosive.
Dr Paul Cole
